About the Iraqi elections

I've heard a variety of numbers today on turnout, and they vary from 60 percent to 80 percent. (Al Jazeera estimates 72 percent, but admits that this was an estimation based on the poll monitors.) If this is true, it's great news, especially because the 400 suicide bombers didn't show up. Depending on who is doing the estimating, it sounds like we have reasonable control in the Shia and Kurdish areas, and the turnout was probably excellent in those areas. And, credit where it's due, the policy of no automotive traffic was probably an excellent idea.

Hopefully, the Shia and Kurds will see that we have kept a promise to them and this will reduce the insurgency in those areas. According to the estimates, somewhere between 60 and 80 percent of registered voters turned out. The most recent estimate of registered voters was from a few weeks ago, and the number was 14 million out of 26 million Iraqis. Bloomberg estimates the number of voters at 8 million.

That leaves the Sunnis. Al Jazeera also reports that the polls never opened in the predominately Sunni cities of Latifiya, Mahmudiya and Yusufiya. Apparently, the attempts to supress the vote in Samarra and Fallujah succeeded.

In war-ravaged Falluja, nearly all residents stayed at home despite the presence of five polling stations. Only one man was reported to have voted.

Meanwhile, the head of the local council in Samarra said no citizens would vote because of the poor security situation.

"Nobody will vote in Samarra because of the security situation," said Taha Husain, the head of Samarra's local governing council.

No employees turned up at polling centres in Samarra and police were not to be seen on the streets, an agency correspondent reported.

So on balance, let's take this as a sign of hope, and that things should be relatively quiet in the Shia and Kurdish parts of the country, but we will need to get the Sunnis (and probably the rest of the world) on board before we can get this solved.